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Unfulfilled Promise: How Top Contenders Stumbled at Mandalika

Honda and Yamaha's Initial Dominance: A Glimmer of Hope

The Indonesian Grand Prix represented a significant chance for both Honda and Yamaha to secure a coveted podium spot, particularly given their impressive speed demonstrated in the practice sessions leading up to the main event. With the factory Ducati team encountering a challenging weekend, which culminated in them clinching the team title, the stage seemed perfectly set for their Japanese rivals to capitalize and accumulate substantial points.

Promising Pace in Practice and Qualifying: Setting the Stage

Indeed, both Honda and Yamaha displayed commendable speed during Friday's practice. Luca Marini and Joan Mir secured fourth and sixth positions respectively for Honda, while Yamaha managed to place three of its bikes within the top ten, directly advancing them to Q2. Although Honda's progress in subsequent sessions was arguably less dramatic compared to some competitors, Marini still managed a solid sixth-place qualification. Alex Rins, riding for Yamaha, delivered an exceptional performance to claim fourth on the starting grid, marking his most impressive showing yet with the team.

The Race Day Challenge: A Podium Dream Deferred

However, during Sunday's main race, both Marini and Rins, at different points, found themselves running as high as second position, trailing only the formidable Gresini Ducati of Fermin Aldeguer. Yet, neither rider was able to translate this promising track position into a podium finish by the end of the 27-lap race. This unconventional race ultimately devolved into a Moto3-esque battle, where KTM's Pedro Acosta masterfully managed his pace and defended his standing, thereby drawing numerous other riders into the fight for the runner-up spot.

Acosta's Strategic Defense and Marini's Frustration

Equipped with the more resilient medium front tire, as his aggressive RC16 machine was unable to sustain the entire race on soft tires, Acosta faced intense pressure from Marini but consistently found a way to counter the Honda rider's advances. Marini initially overtook Acosta for second place on Lap 10, only for the Spaniard to immediately reclaim his position. On Lap 12, Marini successfully made a pass at Turn 12, but Acosta once again fought back at Turn 16 on the subsequent lap, re-establishing his second-place hold.

The Costly Clash and Missed Opportunities for Fernandez

Marini expressed his frustration, stating, "Pedro completely shut everyone down. He executed a brilliant race. I'm not sure how, but KTM allowed their riders to brake incredibly late. They also opted for the medium front tire, perhaps partly for this reason, and their bike accelerated in an astonishing manner, even faster than Ducati's. Overtaking was extremely challenging. I attempted it multiple times, but he always managed to pass me back. I was also mindful of my tire pressure due to a penalty from yesterday's race, which made me a bit cautious. Nevertheless, I believe I possessed the speed to comfortably secure second place; I just needed to execute a decisive overtake on Pedro and prevent him from regaining the position."

Rins's Swift Ascent and Subsequent Decline: A Tire Strategy Gamble

The rider who most benefited from the collision between Fernandez and Marini was a revitalized Rins. He cleverly hugged the inside line at Turn 17, executing a double overtake in a single maneuver. Rins had initially slipped from fourth to fifth on the opening lap but maintained a close proximity to the leaders, allowing him to seize the opportunity and snatch third place. In fact, the Spanish rider even managed to pass Acosta's KTM five laps later, showcasing his impressive pace at that stage of the race. However, the factory Yamaha team had chosen the less durable soft rear tire for Sunday, having encountered difficulties in heating up the medium compound with its stiffer construction. This decision left Rins vulnerable towards the end of the race, leading to a sudden performance decline on Lap 23, ultimately dropping him to tenth position.

Quartararo's Resilience Amidst Tire Challenges

Despite experiencing a challenging period since joining Yamaha in 2024, Rins's strong run in podium positions provided a much-needed boost to his confidence. Yet, his aggressive early pace proved detrimental to his tire longevity, and he ultimately paid the price. Reflecting on his race, Rins commented, "It was truly disappointing. We knew before the start that we would struggle with the soft tire. I had hoped the performance drop would occur earlier, but it only happened in the final five laps. I gave my utmost and tried to manage the rear tire, and I was in contention until those last five laps."

Mir's Disappointment: A Race Cut Short

As Rins rapidly fell down the standings, it was once again Fabio Quartararo who emerged as the leading Yamaha rider, ultimately finishing in seventh place. Quartararo remarked, "I was trailing Rins for two to three laps and couldn't find an opportunity to overtake him. However, I conserved my tires a bit, and he faded quickly within a few laps. I thought to myself, 'I'm not sure if he'll make it to the end,' so I had to preserve my tires. With seven laps remaining, I saw he was still in second place, and I wondered if I had been too cautious. But the general issue is that once the tire is past its prime, it's completely gone."

Strategic Missteps and Technical Puzzles

In a weekend where the usual form guide was disrupted and Yamaha possessed the speed to qualify on the second row, Quartararo should ideally have been alongside Rins, if not significantly faster. However, Quartararo struggled throughout the Indonesian weekend and was the sole rider compelled to use the hard front tire in the race. Despite this, he delivered a strong performance on Sunday, finishing merely two seconds behind Alex Marquez, who secured the final podium spot in third.

Reflecting on the Unfulfilled Potential

Coming off a podium finish in Japan, Mir was expected to be a strong contender for second place. His qualifying session was hampered by "issues," including yellow flags, which left him 12th on the grid. Nevertheless, his charge to fifth in the sprint race clearly demonstrated his rapid pace in race conditions. Even on Sunday, Mir climbed to seventh on the opening lap, benefiting from the collision between Marc Marquez and Marco Bezzecchi. However, his race concluded prematurely on Lap 2 after he crashed independently at Turn 16. Mir expressed his frustration, stating, "As you can imagine, I'm upset because we squandered a great chance today to contend for another podium, but sometimes things unfold this way."