Futures

Kentucky Derby: Only 1 Nevada book will have early futures

The Changing Landscape of Kentucky Derby Futures Betting in Nevada

The Kentucky Derby, one of the most prestigious horse races in the world, is about to undergo a significant shift in the way its futures odds are set and offered in Nevada. After years of competition between multiple sportsbooks, Caesars Sportsbook is now poised to become the sole provider of fixed-odds futures for the 151st running of the event.

Shaping the Future of Derby Betting in Nevada

The Departure of Circa Sports and the Rise of Caesars

Circa Sports, a prominent player in the Nevada sportsbook landscape, has announced that it will no longer be booking futures for the Kentucky Derby, leaving Caesars Sportsbook as the sole operator offering this service. This move marks a significant change in the dynamics of Derby futures betting, as Caesars now holds a unique position in the market.

The decision by Circa Sports to step away from Derby futures is a strategic one, as the company has opted to focus solely on pari-mutuel action moving forward. This shift in approach means that bettors in Nevada will now have to turn to Caesars Sportsbook if they wish to place fixed-odds wagers on the Kentucky Derby in the months leading up to the race.

Caesars' acquisition of William Hill in 2021 has played a crucial role in this development, as the company now has access to William Hill's well-established futures book, which can be traced back to the old Lucky's Race and Sports Books. This acquisition has provided Caesars with a strong foundation to build upon, and the company is now poised to become the dominant player in the Nevada Derby futures market.

The Changing of the Guard: Jingeleski Takes the Reins

Caesars Sportsbook has brought in a new oddsmaker to handle its horse racing futures, including the Kentucky Derby. Jason Jingeleski, a native of New York with 17 years of Las Vegas casino experience, has taken over the role from Paul Bach, who is now taking a backseat in the futures that he had overseen for the past decade.

Jingeleski's transition into this position has already begun, as he has been working closely with Bach to ensure a smooth handover of responsibilities. Jingeleski's passion for horse racing and his familiarity with the industry have made him the ideal candidate to take on this role, and he is eager to put his own stamp on the Caesars Derby futures book.

One of the key changes that Jingeleski is considering is the timing of when Caesars will open its Kentucky Derby futures book. In recent years, the book has typically opened around the time of the Breeders' Cup, but Jingeleski suggests that this year, it may be pushed back slightly, potentially opening sometime around the Breeders' Cup Juvenile race.

The Influence of Bob Baffert's Return

The return of legendary trainer Bob Baffert to the Kentucky Derby scene is expected to have a significant impact on the futures market. Baffert, who has won the Derby a record-tying six times, was suspended from the race in 2021 and 2022 due to a doping controversy, but is now eligible to compete again.

Jingeleski believes that Baffert's absence has only served to increase the betting public's fondness for his horses, and he anticipates that Baffert-trained horses will generate significant betting steam in the Caesars Derby futures book. Horses associated with Baffert have historically been heavily backed, and Jingeleski expects this trend to continue, potentially leading to shorter odds for Baffert's entrants compared to their actual chances of winning.

This dynamic will give Caesars a significant influence over the overall Derby futures market, as it will be the only operator offering fixed-odds futures for an extended period leading up to the race. With few interruptions between the Breeders' Cup and the Derby draw, Caesars' book will be the primary source of Derby futures for bettors in Nevada and those using licensed proxies.

The Enduring Legacy of Derby Futures in Las Vegas

The history of Kentucky Derby futures betting in Las Vegas can be traced back to the early 1980s, when legendary oddsmaker Bob Gregorka was running the books at the Frontier and Sands casinos. Since then, Nevada has remained the lone exception to Churchill Downs' policy of not allowing race and sportsbooks in other states to write Derby futures.

The competition between William Hill and Wynn Las Vegas in recent years has been a defining feature of the Derby futures market, but with Wynn's exit from the fixed-odds horse betting business in 2018, Caesars Sportsbook is now poised to become the sole provider of this service in Nevada. This shift in the landscape will undoubtedly have a significant impact on how bettors approach the Kentucky Derby futures market in the years to come.

Nasdaq Surges as Fed Delivers Jumbo Rate Cut, Fueling Hopes for Soft Landing

U.S. stock index futures soared on Thursday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbing 2% after the Federal Reserve initiated its easing cycle with a substantial 50-basis-point cut to interest rates. This move is expected to aid a soft landing for the world's largest economy, providing a boost to rate-sensitive growth stocks that have led much of this year's market rally.

Powering Ahead: Tech Stocks and Semiconductors Surge on Fed's Dovish Pivot

Tech Titans Ride the Wave of Optimism

The decision by the Federal Reserve to deliver a jumbo rate cut has ignited a surge of optimism in the market, particularly among tech stocks that have been at the forefront of this year's rally. Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet, all major players in the tech sector, advanced by 2% in premarket trading, reflecting the market's confidence in the potential for lower interest rates to bolster their growth prospects.

Semiconductor Stocks Shine Bright

Semiconductor stocks also saw a significant boost, with Nvidia rising 3.2% and Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom gaining 3.3%. The broader market's enthusiasm for these technology-driven companies underscores the belief that a more accommodative monetary policy will create a favorable environment for their continued success.

Small-Cap Stocks Soar on Domestic Focus

Futures tracking the domestically focused Russell 2000 index shot up 3%, reflecting the market's optimism that the Fed's actions will provide a tailwind for companies with a stronger domestic focus. This surge in small-cap stocks suggests that investors see opportunities for these companies to thrive in a lower interest rate environment.

Easing Costs and Boosting Profits

The lower interest rate environment is expected to benefit credit-dependent companies, as it could lead to lower operating costs and greater profitability. This dynamic is likely to be particularly advantageous for businesses that rely heavily on access to credit to finance their operations and growth.

Analysts Foresee a Goldilocks Scenario

After delivering its super-sized rate cut, the Fed assured that it was not an emergency response and unveiled projections that analysts say reflect conditions for the economy to achieve a "Goldilocks scenario," where growth is steady, and inflation and unemployment remain low. This outlook has further fueled the market's enthusiasm, as investors see the potential for a sustained period of economic stability and prosperity.

Traders Anticipate More Cuts on the Horizon

Traders now see a 67% chance that the central bank will lower interest rates by an additional 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Furthermore, BofA Global Research now anticipates a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts by the end of this year, up from its previous forecast of 50 basis points. Citigroup has also revised its rate-cut expectations for December, now expecting a smaller 25-basis-point reduction.

Goldman Sachs Forecasts Consecutive Rate Cuts

Adding to the optimism, Goldman Sachs now expects consecutive 25-basis-point cuts from November 2024 through June 2025, further signaling the market's belief in the Fed's commitment to supporting economic growth and stability.

Muted Initial Reaction, but Historical Precedent Points to Gains

The initial market reaction to the Fed's decision was relatively muted, with all three major indexes closing slightly lower in the previous session. However, data from Evercore ISI shows that the S&P 500 has historically posted an average 14% gain in the six months following the first reduction of a rate-cutting cycle.

Navigating Seasonal Challenges

September has generally been a disappointing month for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 notching an average loss of 1.2% since 1928. Despite this seasonal headwind, the benchmark index remains close to record highs, and the blue-chip Dow is just short of its respective milestone, underscoring the market's resilience and the potential for further gains.

Upcoming Economic Data in Focus

Investors will be closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including weekly jobless claims and existing home sales for August, as they seek to gauge the overall health of the economy and the potential impact of the Fed's actions.

Banking Sector Responds to Rate Cut

The rate cut has also had a positive impact on the banking sector, with JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo all lowering their respective prime rates. Citigroup also rose 1.9% after cutting its base lending rate, reflecting the industry's adaptation to the new interest rate environment.

Fertility Benefits Firm Faces Headwinds

Not all stocks were buoyed by the market's optimism, however. Progyny, a fertility benefits management firm, plunged 26% after a significant client notified the company that it had elected to exercise a 90-day option to terminate its services agreement, highlighting the potential for individual company-specific challenges in the current market landscape.

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