Electrifying Commercial Fleets: A Study on the Potential in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area




A groundbreaking study by the Pembina Institute highlights a compelling opportunity for the immediate electrification of commercial trucks and vans in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). This transition is not only feasible but could also lead to significant reductions in operating costs for businesses and substantial improvements in public health by mitigating air pollution. The research indicates that policy frameworks are crucial in accelerating this shift towards a cleaner, more sustainable transportation sector, emphasizing that the primary hurdles are not technological limitations but rather the absence of supportive government policies.
Detailed Insights on Commercial Fleet Electrification in the GTHA
In a detailed analysis titled 'Electrifying Fleet Trucks: A case study estimating potential in the GTHA', the Pembina Institute, a prominent research and advocacy organization, has unveiled that approximately 33% of commercial trucks and vans operating within the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area are technically ready for immediate electrification. This remarkable potential is projected to expand further, with nearly 50% of the fleet capable of transitioning to electric power by 2030. The study, released on June 21, 2025, underscores that concerns regarding battery range and charging infrastructure, often cited as major barriers, are less formidable than commonly perceived. Chandan Bhardwaj, a Senior Analyst at the Pembina Institute, pointed out that empirical travel data from Canadian trucks, collected across diverse seasonal conditions, confirms the current viability of electrification. This phased approach could see 50% of lighter truck sales in the GTHA, a region housing over half of Ontario's vehicle stock, becoming electric by 2030, compensating for slower adoption rates among heavier vehicles.
The study contends that the main obstacle to widespread electric vehicle adoption is not a lack of technological readiness or infrastructure, but rather insufficient public policy support. Adam Thorn, Transportation Director at the Pembina Institute, articulates that robust policies are essential for Ontario to accelerate its move towards zero-emission trucks, thereby unlocking economic advantages, enhancing public health, and establishing itself as a frontrunner in clean transportation. Similar conclusions were drawn from an earlier study by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), which found that many heavy-duty zero-emission vocational trucks are suitable for electrification due to their limited daily mileage requirements. Both reports converge on the idea that the issue is not capability but availability, indicating that with the right policy interventions, the market for commercial electric vehicles, particularly Class 2 vans and medium-duty EVs, is poised for rapid growth, as evidenced by their surging sales in 2024 and projected continued increase into 2025.
Key findings from the Pembina Institute's study, which hold relevance beyond Toronto for cities with similar demographics and fleet characteristics, include:
- Businesses could realize savings of up to 40% on fuel and maintenance by converting to electric trucks.
- Electric trucks eliminate tailpipe emissions, leading to cleaner air and improved public health outcomes.
- Traffic-related air pollution in the GTHA currently contributes to approximately 700 premature deaths and 2,800 hospitalizations annually, incurring a healthcare cost of around $4.6 billion.
- Ontario's 'Driving Prosperity' initiative stresses the importance of increased electrification, while the City of Toronto aims for 30% of its registered vehicles to be electric by 2030.
- Global governments are setting ambitious zero-emission sales targets for vans and trucks, with regions like Europe, China, California, British Columbia, and Quebec targeting around 35% of new truck sales to be zero-emission by 2030, escalating to nearly 100% by 2040.
Reflections on the Path to a Greener Commercial Fleet
This comprehensive study serves as a potent reminder that the transition to an electrified commercial fleet is not a futuristic dream but a present-day reality, ripe for widespread adoption. As a reporter, I find the alignment between the Canadian and Californian studies particularly striking; it underscores a universal truth about the state of electric vehicle technology for commercial applications. The recurring theme that policy, rather than technology or infrastructure, is the primary accelerant or impediment is a critical insight. It prompts us to consider the immense societal benefits—from reduced healthcare costs due to cleaner air to the economic boon of lower operational expenditures for businesses—that await with proactive government intervention. This is not merely an environmental imperative but a significant economic opportunity. The challenge, therefore, lies squarely with policymakers to enact and enforce the necessary frameworks that will unleash the full potential of electric commercial transportation, guiding us towards a healthier, more prosperous future.