US Residential Solar Market Navigates Policy Shifts and Price Stability
The United States' residential solar power market encountered a period of significant transition in the first half of 2025. Despite maintaining remarkably low prices for solar installations, the industry grapples with evolving federal policies, the specter of reduced tax credits, and the impact of fresh tariffs. This dynamic environment is compelling stakeholders, particularly installers, to innovate their operational and financial strategies to sustain growth and accessibility in a fluctuating market.
A detailed analysis from the 21st EnergySage Intel: Solar & Storage Marketplace Report revealed the intricate landscape of the residential solar sector. The report, drawing from an extensive dataset of consumer interactions on EnergySage.com and a survey of electrification contractors, offers a comprehensive look at market trends. Following a robust performance in 2024 that saw solar and storage costs reach unprecedented lows, the initial six months of 2025 presented a blend of continued progress and looming uncertainties. Consumer interest in adopting solar solutions remains strong; however, the sector is contending with shifting governmental support, the introduction of tariffs, and stricter trade regulations, which are imposing new challenges for businesses involved in installation and supply.
Remarkably, solar system prices held steady at a median of $2.48 per watt throughout the first half of 2025, mirroring the record lows of the latter half of 2024. Installers absorbed financial pressures to prevent price hikes ahead of anticipated policy changes. In contrast, the cost of battery storage systems experienced a modest 4% increase, marking the first uptick after a two-year period of decline, primarily due to new tariffs on Chinese-manufactured battery components. This pricing stability in solar installations, coupled with accessible public policies, underscores the current affordability of solar energy for many homeowners, a trend expected to persist despite future policy adjustments.
The financing landscape for solar projects is also undergoing a notable transformation. Loan interest rates saw an increase, reaching a median of 7.5% in early 2025. This rise led to a reported decrease in demand for loan-based financing from about 38% of contractors, while cash purchases remained consistent or even grew. A significant shift anticipated for 2026 is the increased adoption of third-party ownership (TPO) models, as federal legislation is poised to extend tax credit protections for TPO systems longer than for directly purchased systems. This indicates a strategic adaptation in how residential solar projects are funded, with new, appealing financing options expected to emerge that will continue to drive solar adoption forward, even amidst higher interest rates.
The industry's contractors are voicing considerable apprehension regarding future hurdles. A vast majority, 92%, anticipate adverse effects on their operations if the federal solar tax credit is discontinued. Furthermore, 70% foresee negative impacts from new equipment tariffs, and over a third have already experienced reduced profitability due to elevated interest rates. Compounding these issues are rising labor costs, cited by 84% of contractors, and a significant reliance on solar-related revenue, reported by 79%. In response, many businesses are actively re-evaluating their models to navigate the post-tax credit environment and maintain competitiveness.
The residential solar market in the US is at a critical juncture, balancing sustained low prices and strong consumer interest against the headwinds of policy shifts, rising costs, and evolving financing structures. Industry players are demonstrating resilience and adaptability, exploring new strategies to ensure the continued expansion of solar energy despite the challenges.