Unpacking Bagnaia's Performance Dip in MotoGP: A Year-on-Year Analysis

Francesco Bagnaia, the reigning two-time MotoGP world champion, has openly conceded a notable drop in his race pace and overall performance in the current 2025 season. This stark reality comes after a dominant 2024 campaign where he asserted himself as the grid's fastest rider, securing numerous victories. The comparative analysis of his results between these two seasons reveals a significant downturn, raising questions about the underlying causes. This article seeks to dissect Bagnaia's performance trajectory by examining his finishing positions and race times, particularly in circuits where he competed in both years, offering insights into this unexpected slump.
A Deep Dive into Bagnaia's Challenging 2025 Season
The 2025 MotoGP season has presented a formidable challenge for Francesco Bagnaia, a stark contrast to his triumphant 2024 campaign. Speaking candidly after the Austrian Grand Prix, a race won by Marc Marquez in a time identical to Bagnaia's winning pace from the previous year, the Italian expressed his bewilderment: \"I don’t know why things aren’t working out for me. Marco Bezzecchi and Marc Marquez did everything better than me. That I finished 12 seconds behind on a circuit where I always made a difference is something I don’t understand, and will never understand.” This candid admission underscores the psychological impact of his current struggles.
By the 14th round of the 2024 season, the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, Bagnaia had accumulated an impressive seven Grand Prix victories and a total of ten podium finishes. Even in sprint races, which were considered his weaker point, he secured four wins and two additional top-three placements by this stage. Fast forward to the current 2025 season, and while he has managed to clinch podium spots in half of the 14 Grand Prix events, he has secured only a single victory. His performance in sprint races has been particularly disheartening, with only five podium finishes in 14 attempts, and notably, only one of those coming in the last nine weekends. Fuel tank issues have been repeatedly cited as a contributing factor to his difficulties in these shorter races.
To provide a more precise comparison, let's examine circuits where Bagnaia competed in both the 2024 and 2025 seasons, thereby neutralizing variables introduced by calendar changes. In 2024, excluding his retirement at the Aragon Grand Prix, his average finishing position was an exceptional 1.8. In contrast, for the 2025 season, this average has plummeted to 4.6, excluding his retirement in the rain-affected French Grand Prix. This clear statistical decline paints a vivid picture of his struggles.
Analyzing race times further illuminates the situation. While external factors like track conditions, weather, tire pressures, and bike development can influence race pace, certain comparisons stand out. At the Spanish Grand Prix in Jerez, held on the same weekend in April in both years, Bagnaia won in 2024 with a time of 40m58.053s. This year, the winner, Alex Marquez, completed the race nearly two seconds faster. However, Bagnaia himself was half a second slower than his own 2024 performance over the 25 laps. Similarly, at Sachsenring, Bagnaia's 2025 race time was seven seconds slower than his 2024 time, a substantial regression compared to the rest of the field. The Austrian Grand Prix serves as a particularly poignant example, where despite the overall race pace remaining consistent with 2024, Bagnaia's personal performance declined significantly, resulting in an eighth-place finish.
These data points strongly suggest that the current ‘GP25’ bike does not resonate with Bagnaia as effectively as its predecessor. More critically, his public statements reflect a growing internal belief that his previous bike offered superior performance, a conviction that is undoubtedly influencing his psychological state as the 2025 season progresses with eight rounds remaining.
Bagnaia's current struggles highlight the intricate relationship between a rider, their machine, and their mental fortitude in the fiercely competitive world of MotoGP. While external factors can play a role, the psychological aspect of a champion doubting their equipment and their own performance can be a significant barrier to success. The remainder of the 2025 season will be a test of his resilience and his team's ability to unlock the potential of the 'GP25' for their star rider.