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As the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs intensify, the field has narrowed to 12 contenders. The upcoming races at New Hampshire, Kansas, and the Charlotte Roval will determine which four drivers face elimination next. After successfully predicting some first-round exits, two experts offer their insights into who might struggle to advance in this high-stakes competition. Their predictions are based on current team performance, individual driver records, and the specific challenges each track presents.

The Round of 12 marks a pivotal phase where consistency and strategic performance are paramount. While some drivers managed to scrape through the initial round, the competition escalates significantly, demanding peak performance and error-free racing. Unexpected struggles and the pressure of elimination could lead to surprising outcomes, making each race crucial for the remaining hopefuls.

Expert Predictions for Round of 12 Eliminations

Our analysts, Matt Weaver and Nick DeGroot, have put forward their picks for the drivers most likely to be eliminated in the upcoming Round of 12. Their selections are based on a thorough evaluation of recent performance, historical data at the relevant tracks, and the overall championship readiness of each team. The unpredictable nature of playoff racing, especially with an elimination race at the challenging Charlotte Roval, means that even strong contenders could face an early exit if they don't perform flawlessly.

Matt Weaver's predictions include Chase Elliott, Austin Cindric, Ross Chastain, and Tyler Reddick. He notes that while Elliott's team has not demonstrated championship-winning form recently, they are capable of surprising. Cindric's team, despite his unexpected survival in the previous round, lacks the consistent top-five finishes needed to advance. Chastain, although a past Final Four contender, has not shown consistent season-long performance. Reddick, despite a recent boost at the Southern 500, has been inconsistent compared to his 2024 performance and starts the round at the bottom of the standings. Nick DeGroot largely echoes these sentiments, particularly highlighting Reddick's winless streak and Cindric's reliance on luck. DeGroot also points out Joey Logano's struggles on road courses and Kyle Larson's recent unforced errors and lack of wins since May as potential reasons for their elimination, despite starting with a points buffer.

Dark Horses and Surprising Survivors

Despite the strong contenders for elimination, both experts identify drivers who might unexpectedly advance. These drivers, while facing significant challenges, possess unique strengths or favorable track records that could help them defy expectations and secure a spot in the next round. The element of surprise is a perennial feature of NASCAR playoffs, where a single strong performance or a competitor's misstep can completely alter the playoff landscape.

Matt Weaver believes Joey Logano, despite not being in an even-numbered year (which he humorously ties to Logano's championship wins), will find a way to advance. Logano's ability to maximize his equipment and perform under pressure, even if it means just scraping by on points, is a key factor. Nick DeGroot sees Ross Chastain as a potential survivor. Chastain's past victory at Kansas and his strong performance on 1.5-mile tracks, coupled with his recent top-five qualifying efforts on road courses, make him a strong candidate to rack up crucial stage points, particularly at the Roval. Furthermore, Chastain’s participation in a tire test at New Hampshire Motor Speedway gives him an edge, suggesting he might overcome his perceived weakness at that track to continue his playoff run.

Lewis Hamilton's commanding performance in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix's second practice session signals a crucial advancement for Ferrari in the 2025 Formula 1 season. His top placement, ahead of teammate Charles Leclerc, was largely attributed to a critical modification in his braking setup. This development has sparked optimism within the Ferrari camp, even as competitors like McLaren demonstrate formidable, yet sometimes inconsistent, speed.

Ferrari's Friday Dominance at Baku: Hamilton's Braking Mastery and Team Optimism

During the Free Practice 2 session of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton, driving for Ferrari, achieved the fastest lap, outperforming his teammate Charles Leclerc by a mere 0.074 seconds. This success came after a challenging FP1, where Hamilton struggled with braking confidence, describing the session as a 'mess'. He later explained that significant adjustments to the braking system for FP2 made a world of difference, allowing him to push harder into the challenging 90-degree corners of the Baku City Circuit. This breakthrough has infused the team with confidence, as Hamilton expressed gratitude for the collective effort and patience that is now yielding tangible results.

Meanwhile, Leclerc, despite a strong showing, felt he could have extracted more from his performance. He acknowledged Ferrari's overall strength but highlighted McLaren's exceptional, though not fully realized, pace, calling them 'in another world'. Leclerc, who has historically secured multiple pole positions in Baku, admitted that a victory here might be a distant prospect, given McLaren's potential. Ferrari's Team Principal, Frederic Vasseur, echoed a cautious optimism. He was pleased with the team's early performance but underscored the tight competitive margins and the unknown full potential of rivals, particularly Mercedes, hinting that they might not have used their engines to their maximum capacity in practice.

This weekend's events at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix underline the continuous pursuit of perfection in Formula 1. Hamilton's experience highlights how a precise technical adjustment can dramatically alter a driver's confidence and performance, turning a 'mess' into a triumph. It reminds us that even at the pinnacle of motorsport, success is often a mosaic of minute improvements and relentless dedication, not just raw power or innate talent. The dynamic interplay between driver feedback, engineering adjustments, and strategic execution remains paramount in securing a competitive edge.