NASCAR Playoff Predictions: Who Will Fall in the First Round?
The Crucible: Predicting the Initial Cuts in the Playoff Gauntlet
The Playoff Field: A Diverse Group of Contenders
The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs feature a formidable contingent of 16 drivers. This includes four past Cup champions, 14 individuals who have celebrated at least one victory this year, and the promising rookie, Shane van Gisbergen. The opening round will test their mettle across three distinct oval tracks, each presenting its own unique set of challenges.
Darlington's Demands: The Opening Salvo
The playoff journey commences at Darlington Raceway with the 76th running of the Southern 500. Known as a 'crown jewel' event, this race is notoriously grueling, pushing both drivers and their machines to their absolute limits. Success here demands a blend of raw speed and strategic precision.
Gateway's Unique Challenge: A Mid-Round Test
Following Darlington, the competition moves to World Wide Technology Raceway, often referred to as Gateway. While relatively new to the Cup schedule, having only joined in 2022, this marks its inaugural appearance in the playoffs. Its unique configuration—a 1.250-mile oval with minimal banking and two distinct corners—requires a specific approach to handling and race strategy.
Bristol's Brutality: The Deciding Battle
The first elimination round culminates at Bristol Motor Speedway. This high-banked, half-mile oval is renowned for its blistering pace and chaotic race conditions. Five hundred laps of intense action will determine which four drivers, currently occupying the lowest points positions, will see their championship aspirations conclude abruptly.
Expert Insights: Matt Weaver's Initial Predictions
Motorsport.com's Senior NASCAR Editor, Matt Weaver, offers his analysis of the drivers he believes are most vulnerable in the first round. Josh Berry, despite his natural talent, faces challenges from his team's recent performance and on-track errors. Austin Cindric, while showing consistent improvement, lacks the dominant form needed to comfortably advance. Austin Dillon's Richard Childress Racing team, despite recent upturns, may struggle to match the pace of the top contenders. Ross Chastain, despite his proven ability to perform under pressure, is flagged due to potential for bad luck and a lack of substantial playoff points buffer.
Matt Weaver's Projected Eliminations
Josh Berry: His raw talent is undeniable, but the Wood Brothers Racing team has been plagued by inconsistencies, including pit road errors and occasional missteps from the second-year driver. Without a significant playoff point cushion, his average finish in the 20s makes him a prime candidate for early exit.
Austin Cindric: While his overall season has shown improvement, the No. 2 team from Team Penske hasn't consistently displayed the elite performance required to confidently progress. Despite his potential for strong runs at Gateway and Bristol, being just one point above the cutline leaves him in a precarious position.
Austin Dillon: The Richard Childress Racing No. 3 team has shown some recent momentum, but they haven't consistently matched the top-tier prowess seen from other leading contenders. This lack of sustained dominance makes it challenging to envision them progressing beyond the initial round.
Ross Chastain: Trackhouse Racing's No. 1 car is certainly capable of advancing, and Chastain possesses the grit to perform when it matters most. However, his prediction for Chastain's elimination is not based on performance, but rather on the high probability of encountering misfortune across these three unpredictable races, coupled with a limited playoff point advantage.
Expert Insights: Nick DeGroot's Initial Predictions
Nick DeGroot, Motorsport.com's veteran news manager, provides his own perspective on which drivers are most likely to be eliminated. He echoes some of Weaver's sentiments, particularly regarding Austin Dillon and Josh Berry, highlighting their season-long struggles and lack of consistent top finishes. He also pinpoints Austin Cindric as a likely early exit, despite his consistency. DeGroot's most surprising pick is Tyler Reddick, citing a recent dip in form and a lack of wins as potential hindrances to his playoff journey.
Nick DeGroot's Projected Eliminations
Austin Dillon: Despite his impressive Richmond victory, it remains his sole top-five finish of the season. While the RCR driver can still consider his season a personal success, the No. 3 team's performance on these technically demanding tracks is unlikely to keep pace with the competition, leading to a first-round exit.
Josh Berry: Although he secured an unexpected early win for Wood Brothers, Berry's 2025 season has been a struggle. His average finish is worse than 20th, even with a couple of recent top-tens. DeGroot expresses skepticism that this late-season surge will be enough to carry the No. 21 team through the initial playoff round.
Austin Cindric: This was a difficult call, as Cindric has demonstrated consistency throughout the year, with five consecutive top-16 finishes before a recent incident. However, being only one point above the cutline, a significant leap in performance is required for the No. 2 team to advance, which DeGroot believes is improbable.
Tyler Reddick: DeGroot's surprise elimination pick is Reddick, last year's regular-season champion and Championship 4 contender. The 2025 season has been markedly different, with Reddick being one of only two winless playoff drivers. His recent finishes have been inconsistent, placing him in the elimination zone, and despite a potentially strong showing at Darlington, it may not be enough to prevent a shocking early exit.
Drivers Poised to Just Advance: Matt's Take
Matt Weaver also identifies two drivers who, despite facing significant challenges, he believes will narrowly escape elimination in the first round. Shane van Gisbergen's playoff point buffer, accumulated through his road course dominance, coupled with his improving oval performance, should be just enough to see him through. Tyler Reddick, despite his recent form, is expected to capitalize on his past playoff experience and the favorable track lineup to maximize his performance and advance.
Matt's Close Calls for Advancement
Shane van Gisbergen: While Gateway and Bristol are expected to be tough, his significant playoff point advantage from road course successes should carry him. His improved oval racing skills, demonstrated by a 14th-place finish at Richmond and comfort on high tire-wear tracks like Darlington, suggest he can secure enough points to narrowly move forward, provided he avoids DNFs.
Tyler Reddick: Despite a challenging season and no wins, last year's regular-season champion is seen as a survivor. The initial three playoff races are well-suited to his driving style, and his prior experience in the playoff gauntlet should enable him to optimize his performance and advance while others might succumb to pressure.
Drivers Poised to Just Advance: Nick's Take
Nick DeGroot offers his own predictions for drivers who will barely make it through the first round. Ross Chastain, despite recent inconsistencies and being on the cusp of elimination, is expected to leverage his ability to navigate through the field and avoid major errors. Shane van Gisbergen, the rookie sensation, is also predicted to advance, primarily due to his substantial playoff point cushion and his intelligent, analytical approach to racing under pressure.
Nick's Close Calls for Advancement
Ross Chastain: The first round promises to be nerve-wracking for Trackhouse Racing. Chastain, just one point above the cutline and experiencing a summer slump, has a history of inconsistent summer performances. However, his proven ability to move through the field and consistent top-20 finishes this year should be enough to save him, especially if competitors make critical mistakes.
Shane van Gisbergen: Chastain's rookie teammate, celebrated for his road course mastery, enters the playoffs with a 16-point buffer—a crucial advantage. While the oval tracks will present a steeper learning curve, van Gisbergen's analytical approach, exceptional tire management, and composure under pressure are expected to see him through to the Round of 12.