China's auto exports are anticipated to slow down significantly in 2025, despite holding the top exporter position for two consecutive years. In 2024, China exported approximately 4.8 million vehicles, surpassing Japan and becoming the world’s largest car exporter. However, export growth is expected to drop to 10% this year due to reduced shipments to Russia and increased tariff pressures in Europe. Additionally, electric vehicle (EV) exports are forecasted to see no growth. Meanwhile, China's domestic market experienced robust sales, particularly in new energy vehicles (NEVs), which accounted for nearly half of all car sales. The government's subsidy programs have played a crucial role in driving demand, but profitability within the industry has declined over the past few years.
The Chinese automotive sector faces significant challenges in its export markets following an impressive performance in 2024. Despite being crowned the world’s leading exporter for two consecutive years, the industry is bracing for a slowdown in 2025. Tariff increases in Europe and declining shipments to Russia are contributing factors to this deceleration. Furthermore, EV exports are expected to stagnate, reflecting the impact of ongoing trade tensions and policy changes in key markets. These external pressures underscore the need for strategic adjustments to maintain competitiveness on the global stage.
In 2024, China exported 4.8 million vehicles, marking a 25% increase from the previous year and solidifying its position as the world’s largest exporter. However, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), forecasts that export growth will cool to just 10% in 2025. This projection is driven by several factors, including a sharp decline in shipments to Russia and the introduction of additional tariffs on Chinese-made EVs by the European Union. The EU's 10% growth in the early months of 2024 pales in comparison to the 36% surge seen in 2023, highlighting the immediate effects of these trade barriers. Despite these challenges, some analysts believe that establishing production facilities in Europe, such as BYD’s plant in Hungary, could mitigate short-term losses and enhance market share in the long run.
While export prospects dim, the domestic automotive market in China continues to thrive, driven by strong sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs). The country's robust subsidy programs and competitive pricing have fueled record-high NEV sales, making up nearly half of all passenger vehicle purchases in 2024. This trend bodes well for local manufacturers like BYD, Geely, and Xiaomi, who are capitalizing on the shift towards greener transportation. The extended trade-in subsidies for 2025 are expected to further boost demand, although growth rates may moderate compared to recent years.
In 2024, China's domestic car sales grew by 5.3%, reaching 23.1 million units for the fourth consecutive year of positive growth. NEV sales surged by 40.7%, accounting for 47.2% of total car sales, inching closer to a 50% milestone. Government incentives, including subsidies of up to $2,800 for NEV purchases and $2,000 for more efficient combustion engine vehicles, have been instrumental in driving this momentum. Over 6.6 million cars benefited from these subsidies, with over 60% of the subsidized purchases going to NEVs. Analysts predict that NEV sales will rise by 20% in 2025, making up 57% of total car sales. However, despite this growth, profitability within the industry has declined, with sales profit margins dropping from 6.2% in 2020 to 4.4% in the first 11 months of 2024. Suppliers and dealers have also felt the pinch from an extended price war, forcing them to reduce component prices and offer deeper discounts.