Goldman Sachs has significantly revised its electric vehicle (EV) sales predictions for Xiaomi, signaling a more optimistic view of the company's future in the automotive sector. The investment bank now anticipates that Xiaomi will achieve a pivotal profit milestone by 2026. Analyst Timothy Zhao and his team have increased their forecast for Xiaomi’s EV sales to 350,000 units in 2025 and 655,000 units in 2026, reflecting a substantial rise from previous estimates. This adjustment is driven by improved demand prospects and enhanced manufacturing capabilities. The analysts also highlighted Xiaomi's "hero product" strategy, starting with the SU7 model, which they believe will drive long-term profitability. With the launch of additional models like the YU7 and the high-performance SU7 Ultra, Xiaomi aims to solidify its position in the competitive EV market.
The revised forecasts from Goldman Sachs underscore a significant shift in sentiment regarding Xiaomi's EV business. The analysts noted that the company's approach to product development, focusing on flagship models such as the SU7 sedan, positions it well for sustained growth. Launched in March 2024, the SU7 quickly gained traction, with deliveries beginning in April. The sedan comes in three configurations—Standard, Pro, and Max—offering price points ranging from RMB 215,900 to RMB 299,900. In October, Xiaomi introduced the SU7 Ultra, a premium variant priced at RMB 814,900, set to debut in March 2025. The company's second EV model, the YU7 SUV, is scheduled for release in mid-2025. These strategic product launches are expected to bolster Xiaomi's market presence and financial performance.
Goldman Sachs values Xiaomi's EV division at approximately RMB 272 billion ($37 billion), reflecting a forward price-to-sales ratio of 1.7x, higher than industry peers. The analysts predict that Xiaomi's non-IFRS operating loss from its smart EV business will decrease from RMB 6.8 billion in 2024 to less than RMB 4 billion in 2025, potentially reaching profitability by 2026. To support this ambitious expansion, Xiaomi plans to invest RMB 13 billion in research and development for EVs and other innovative projects in 2025, an increase of RMB 3.3 billion from the previous year. The company's commitment to innovation and strategic investments underscores its dedication to becoming a leading player in the global EV market.
Xiaomi's rapid progress in the EV sector has been further supported by its manufacturing infrastructure. In late 2021, the company signed an agreement with authorities in Yizhuang, Beijing, to construct a plant capable of producing 300,000 vehicles annually. The facility, divided into two phases, each with a capacity of 150,000 units per year, is on track to complete its second phase by June 2023. By leveraging this robust production capability, Xiaomi aims to meet growing consumer demand and achieve its ambitious delivery targets. CEO Lei Jun announced in December that the company delivered over 135,000 vehicles in 2024, setting a goal of 300,000 deliveries for 2025. This trajectory indicates Xiaomi's strong momentum and potential for continued success in the EV industry.