Electric Cars

Toyota is embarking on an innovative path for the future of automotive propulsion, asserting that traditional internal combustion engines (ICE) will continue to play a crucial role alongside electric vehicles. In a significant move, the global automotive giant, in collaboration with Subaru and Mazda, is developing a new generation of gasoline engines. These smaller and lighter four-cylinder powerplants are being heralded as a groundbreaking advancement by Hiroki Nakajima, Toyota's Chief Technology Officer, signaling a long-term commitment to evolving engine technology.

The Japanese automaker's vision extends to integrating these advanced 1.5-liter and 2.0-liter engines into virtually every type of powertrain imaginable. Andrea Carlucci, Vice President of Product Strategy and Marketing for Toyota Europe, highlighted the core principle behind this initiative: adaptability. He emphasized that the new engine architecture is being meticulously designed for seamless operation within diverse systems, whether they are entirely electric, hybrid configurations, or even hydrogen-powered setups, underscoring a strategic move towards unparalleled flexibility in vehicle design.

While the notion of a gasoline engine in an electric vehicle might initially seem counterintuitive, Toyota's strategy likely points towards extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs). In this innovative arrangement, the internal combustion engine functions exclusively as a generator, supplying power to recharge the battery rather than directly driving the wheels. This allows the engine to operate at its most efficient speed, optimizing fuel consumption. Precedents for this design include models such as the BMW i3 REX, the Ramcharger, and certain Mazda MX-30 variants, as well as Nissan's E-Power technology, all demonstrating the practical application of this hybrid approach.

Toyota has already signaled its intentions to introduce EREVs in China through a joint venture with GAC, with models like the Highlander SUV and Sienna minivan slated to receive this treatment. These vehicles are anticipated to feature a compact engine dedicated solely to range extension, ensuring that motive power is derived entirely from electric motors. Furthermore, Toyota, which achieved an impressive 41 percent thermal efficiency in 2018, is dedicated to further improving this metric in its next-generation engines. These engines will be capable of running on a broad spectrum of fuels, including traditional fossil fuels, biofuels, hydrogen, and synthetic fuels. Beyond standard hybrids and EREVs, the company is also exploring long-range plug-in hybrids, with Carlucci suggesting that achieving 62 miles (100 kilometers) of electric-only range represents a pivotal benchmark.

The new engine family will encompass both naturally aspirated and turbocharged 1.5-liter variants, alongside a larger 2.0-liter turbocharged option. Efficiency remains a key focus, but performance has not been overlooked; a high-performance version of the 2.0-liter turbo engine is being developed for Gazoo Racing (GR) models, capable of producing up to 600 horsepower in competitive race cars. Carlucci also shared insights into vehicle platform development, noting that while many manufacturers adapt existing ICE platforms for electrification, Toyota is contemplating designing platforms primarily for EVs that can then be flexibly adapted for plug-in hybrids or full hybrids without compromising their inherent advantages. This approach parallels that of other industry players, such as Tesla's dedicated EV platforms, Volkswagen Group's MEB, Hyundai and Kia's E-GMP, and Mercedes' EVA. Moreover, certain EV-native platforms, like Stellantis' STLA series and VW Group's forthcoming Scalable Systems Platform (SSP), are designed to accommodate combustion engines.

Echoing the sentiments of Toyota chairman Akio Toyoda, who has expressed skepticism about EVs dominating more than 30 percent of the market, Carlucci maintains that a singular focus on electric cars is not the only route to reducing carbon emissions. He advocates for a diverse portfolio of powertrain technologies, emphasizing the importance of providing consumers with a wide array of choices. This stance implies that Toyota will not aggressively push electric vehicles in markets where there is insufficient consumer demand, ensuring a balanced and market-responsive approach to its future product offerings.

Mercedes-Benz, once a proponent of an aggressive electric vehicle transition, has significantly shifted its stance, with its CEO now cautioning that an outright ban on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in Europe could trigger the industry's collapse. This stark warning comes amidst concerns that the European Union's ambitious 2035 deadline for phasing out traditional gasoline and diesel cars is economically unsustainable and disconnected from market realities.

Ola Källenius, who leads Mercedes-Benz and also serves as the President of the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), recently emphasized the critical need for a 'reality check' regarding the European Union's proposed ban on new combustion engine car sales by 2035. In an interview with Handelsblatt, Källenius articulated a grave concern that the steadfast adherence to this policy could precipitate a catastrophic downturn for the European automotive sector. He stressed that while decarbonization is an imperative, the strategy to achieve it must be technologically agnostic, rather than exclusively favoring electric vehicles. He pointed out that forcing a premature cessation of ICE vehicle production risks driving the industry 'full speed against a wall,' with severe repercussions for the economy.

Källenius further elaborated on the potential unintended consequences of the 2035 ban, predicting a surge in demand for gasoline and diesel cars in the years leading up to the deadline. This pre-emptive purchasing spree, driven by consumers' desire to secure ICE vehicles before they are outlawed, would paradoxically negate any short-term environmental benefits and fail to contribute positively to climate objectives. His argument underscores a fundamental disconnect between regulatory ambition and the practicalities of consumer behavior and market dynamics.

Data from the first half of the year corroborates Källenius's concerns about the slow pace of electric vehicle adoption. Across EU countries, the UK, and EFTA nations, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) constituted only 17.5% of total car sales. When accounting for plug-in hybrids, the share of electrified models collectively reached a modest 20.1% for Mercedes-Benz's global shipments during the same period. These figures are significantly below the widespread adoption rates required to make a complete transition to electric vehicles by 2035 feasible without severe economic disruption. The European Commission, despite its firm stance, is expected to review the CO₂ Standards Regulation for cars and vans in the coming months, offering a potential window for reconsideration or adjustments to the ban.

The debate surrounding the 2035 ban highlights the complex interplay between environmental policy, economic viability, and technological readiness within the automotive industry. As European policymakers deliberate the future of mobility, the appeals from industry leaders like Källenius for flexibility and a more nuanced, technology-neutral pathway to decarbonization underscore the immense challenges ahead. The ultimate decision will have profound implications not only for the profitability and sustainability of car manufacturers but also for the broader European economy and its global competitiveness.